分享投资资讯部落格

有看到我在follow的部落格 “夜月空间”吗？他是我在大学所认识的朋友。他毕业过后除了进修他所兴趣的经济学（之前是读工程系）还有业余搞一些小投资。他这一个部落格主要分享他的投资经验和讯息， 还包括一些个人生活的启发。这部落格是推荐给那些对投资有兴趣的人和很想跟有相同兴趣的人交流。我在他的部落格学到不少东西。希望大家也多多收益 ^^.

这是那个网子：http://moonitez89.blogspot.com/

P.S: 我写华语是因为他的部落格主要是华语，所以只是写给会看华语的朋友。

Kuala Lumpur–Singapore High Speed Rail : A game change?

In 2010, Malaysia government announced economic transformation programme, one of the key entry point projects was the high speed rail between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore(For more information, you can go to SPAD Website). This project is said to be game changing for the two countries where it trim the travel time between the two cities to just 90 minute. Recently the Malaysia government had confirms the station namely Kuala Lumpur( Near Sungai Besi), Putrajaya, Seremban, Ayer Keroh, Muar, Batu Pahat and Nusajaya. While Singapore counterpart have yet to finalise the stop but already identifies 3 potential location : Tuas West, Jurong east and Singapore City Center. Kuala Lumpur and Singapore corridor mainly serve by car, bus and airplane. Conventional rail share model is quite negligible. Currently this corridor account for 7.45 million passenger-km in 2011 and the number still growing. But the question now is will this project game changing for the both countries as stated by our prime minister, Dato Seri Najib Razak? 

The most important factor to make the HSR project success is there are enough people using the transportation. As we all know learning from other HSR system around the world, while Malaysia conventional rail is poorly in service, only air transport will be badly hit when the HSR kick in. Base on data from CAPA, KLIA to Changi Airport weekly capacity (seats) is 101248 and sum up to be around just 10 million a year. While the end terminal will be locate not near to KLIA and Changi Airport, competition will be lesser and annual ridership of the HSR for the 1st year may even lesser than 8 million. It may take some time for this project to turn profit.

Another factor influence the success of the project is the connection of end terminal to downtown area. As we already know, Kuala Lumpur end terminal will be locate at current Sungai Besi TUDM air base which will redevelopment into Bandar Malaysia. Due to the HSR station not at the core of the downtown area, there is a need to change to other transit to reach KL city center. I have do some study on the area, there are three stations located near the Kuala Lumpur HSR station which are KTM Seputeh station, Ampang Line Cheras station and KTM & Ampang Line Salak Selatan Station. The nearest is the Cheras station which is 1km away.  Even there is a pedestrian path build between the two station, it still take 15 minute to reach Cheras station and another 30 to reach the city center. This show there is a serious lack of connection to HSR station. Although it is just 5km away from downtown, the lack of connectivity will make HSR less attractive to use and even KLIA have ERL to link airport with KL central with just 30 min ride compare to 45 min by HSR. While in Singapore end terminal which haven't finalise yet, I predict Singapore government most likely will set the station in Jurong East because it is not too costly to build compare to city center and not too far from downtown if it is in Tuas West. Beside that they want avoid competitive advantage over Changi Airport if set the station in core of downtown and Jurong district is becoming the next CBD. I assume the station will be integrate into Jurong East Interchange mean not connectivity issue on Singapore side and it take another 30 minute to travel from Jurong East to city center which is much attractive to use compare from Changi airport.

Now the problem lie on how Malaysia government to connect station in Bandar Malaysia to heart of the city center. Besides that, other HSR station also need a good public transport system to support the HSR like feeder bus for connection to their city center, example Nusajaya to Johor Bahru Central. Malaysia need to learn from other HSR system around the world as they always overestimated the popularity in initial year. Most of the HSR end terminal station is very close to downtown and if it not, a good integration with other transportation system. Malaysia have very poorly developed public transport system which discourage people to use and conventional rail only have more development until recently but still limit to city at the north like Ipoh and Butterworth. I hope it will not become another white elephant and really become game changing to Malaysia like how HSR transform Taiwan, Korea and Japan.